從(cong)未(wei)來預期(qi)看，2021年四季(ji)度至2022年一季(ji)度，中(zhong)(zhong)經農業景氣指數或(huo)將延續小幅回落(luo)，但(dan)農業經濟整體繼續保持穩(wen)中(zhong)(zhong)提質(zhi)的向好態勢。

景氣指數小幅回落

三(san)季度，農經景氣(qi)指數為102.1，剔除(chu)隨機(ji)因(yin)素(su)后的農經景氣(qi)指數為101.8，惠農政策等(deng)外(wai)部因(yin)素(su)對農業景氣(qi)繼續(xu)起到積極支撐(cheng)作用。

與上半(ban)年相(xiang)比(bi)，前三(san)季度(du)農(nong)(nong)產(chan)品出(chu)口(kou)增(zeng)速小幅(fu)上升，農(nong)(nong)林水財政支出(chu)同比(bi)降幅(fu)持(chi)續收窄；農(nong)(nong)業(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)、農(nong)(nong)業(ye)投資(zi)、農(nong)(nong)民(min)收入和農(nong)(nong)業(ye)勞動生(sheng)產(chan)率(lv)增(zeng)速有所回落。從(cong)各指標(biao)兩年平均增(zeng)速來看，前三(san)季度(du)農(nong)(nong)業(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)、農(nong)(nong)業(ye)投資(zi)、農(nong)(nong)產(chan)品出(chu)口(kou)和農(nong)(nong)業(ye)勞動生(sheng)產(chan)率(lv)增(zeng)速均比(bi)上半(ban)年有所加快；農(nong)(nong)林水財政支出(chu)增(zeng)速由負轉正(zheng)；農(nong)(nong)民(min)收入增(zeng)速有所放緩(huan)。

三(san)季(ji)度(du)，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)經預(yu)(yu)警指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)為(wei)93.3，比(bi)(bi)二季(ji)度(du)回落3.4點(dian)，繼(ji)續在“綠(lv)燈區(qu)”運行。在構成(cheng)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)經預(yu)(yu)警指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)的(de)(de)10項(xiang)(xiang)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)中(zhong)，位于(yu)(yu)“黃燈區(qu)”的(de)(de)有3項(xiang)(xiang)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，分別為(wei)第(di)一(yi)產業(ye)增加值、谷物(wu)及其制(zhi)品(pin)進口額(e)和(he)豬料(liao)比(bi)(bi)；位于(yu)(yu)“綠(lv)燈區(qu)”的(de)(de)有3項(xiang)(xiang)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，分別為(wei)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)居民(min)人均經營凈收(shou)入、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產品(pin)出口額(e)和(he)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)副食(shi)品(pin)加工業(ye)增加值；位于(yu)(yu)“淺藍(lan)燈區(qu)”的(de)(de)有3項(xiang)(xiang)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，分別為(wei)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)林牧漁(yu)業(ye)固定資產投資完成(cheng)額(e)、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產品(pin)生產者價格指(zhi)(zhi)數(shu)和(he)糧油食(shi)品(pin)零(ling)售(shou)額(e)；位于(yu)(yu)“藍(lan)燈區(qu)”的(de)(de)有1項(xiang)(xiang)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)，為(wei)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)林水財政支出。

與二季度相比，農(nong)(nong)產品(pin)出(chu)口額(e)由“淺藍燈區”回升(sheng)至“綠(lv)燈區”；農(nong)(nong)產品(pin)生產者價格(ge)指數和農(nong)(nong)林牧漁業固(gu)定資產投(tou)資完(wan)成額(e)由“綠(lv)燈區”下降至“淺藍燈區”；其余7個(ge)指標未發生變(bian)化(hua)。

農業(ye)經濟運(yun)行總體(ti)良(liang)好。前三季度(du)，第(di)一產業(ye)增(zeng)加值為51430億元(yuan)，同比增(zeng)長(chang)7.4%，比上半年(nian)(nian)(nian)回落(luo)0.4個(ge)(ge)百分點；兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增(zeng)長(chang)4.8%，兩年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均(jun)增(zeng)速比上半年(nian)(nian)(nian)加快0.5個(ge)(ge)百分點。

全年糧食有望高位增產

全(quan)(quan)國夏糧(liang)(liang)量(liang)質并增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)，產量(liang)再創新高，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長2.1%，實(shi)現總(zong)產、面(mian)積(ji)、單產“三項(xiang)齊增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)”，為全(quan)(quan)年糧(liang)(liang)食豐(feng)收奠定堅實(shi)基礎。秋(qiu)(qiu)糧(liang)(liang)生(sheng)產形勢(shi)總(zong)體(ti)較(jiao)好(hao)，播種面(mian)積(ji)穩(wen)中(zhong)有升(sheng)，全(quan)(quan)年糧(liang)(liang)食有望繼續(xu)獲(huo)得好(hao)收成。從秋(qiu)(qiu)糧(liang)(liang)播種面(mian)積(ji)看(kan)，各地持(chi)續(xu)加大(da)糧(liang)(liang)食生(sheng)產扶持(chi)力度(du)，加之種糧(liang)(liang)比較(jiao)收益(yi)上升(sheng)等因素，農戶種糧(liang)(liang)意愿增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)強，秋(qiu)(qiu)糧(liang)(liang)播種面(mian)積(ji)呈(cheng)擴大(da)態(tai)勢(shi)；從單產看(kan)，今年農業氣(qi)候條(tiao)件總(zong)體(ti)有利秋(qiu)(qiu)糧(liang)(liang)作物生(sheng)長；從產量(liang)看(kan)，雖(sui)然局部暴雨和(he)災情偏重，但(dan)全(quan)(quan)國秋(qiu)(qiu)糧(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)產已成定局，全(quan)(quan)年糧(liang)(liang)食產量(liang)有望高位增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)產，連續(xu)7年保(bao)持(chi)在(zai)1.3萬億斤(jin)以上。

畜牧業生產(chan)持(chi)續穩定(ding)增長(chang)。前三季度，全國豬牛羊禽肉產(chan)量6428萬噸，增長(chang)22.4%。

其中(zhong)，生(sheng)豬產(chan)能加快釋放，生(sheng)豬出(chu)欄同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)大幅(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。前三季(ji)(ji)度(du)，生(sheng)豬出(chu)欄49193萬頭(tou)，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上年同(tong)(tong)(tong)期增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)35.9%，增(zeng)速比(bi)(bi)(bi)上半(ban)年進一步(bu)加快1.5個百分點；豬肉(rou)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)3917萬噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)38.0%。三季(ji)(ji)度(du)末(mo)，生(sheng)豬存(cun)欄43764萬頭(tou)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)18.2%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)二(er)季(ji)(ji)度(du)末(mo)略降0.3%；其中(zhong)，能繁殖母豬存(cun)欄4459萬頭(tou)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)16.7%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)二(er)季(ji)(ji)度(du)末(mo)下降2.3%，相當于2017年年末(mo)水平。牛(niu)羊(yang)(yang)禽(qin)肉(rou)、牛(niu)奶(nai)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)加，禽(qin)蛋產(chan)量(liang)(liang)略有減少。前三季(ji)(ji)度(du)，全(quan)國牛(niu)肉(rou)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)468萬噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.9%；羊(yang)(yang)肉(rou)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)341萬噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.3%；禽(qin)肉(rou)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)1702萬噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.8%；禽(qin)蛋產(chan)量(liang)(liang)2434萬噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降2.4%；牛(niu)奶(nai)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)2514萬噸(dun)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8.0%。

前三季度，農(nong)副(fu)食品加工業增(zeng)(zeng)加值同比增(zeng)(zeng)長8.6%，比上半年(nian)回落2.1個百分點(dian)；兩年(nian)平(ping)均增(zeng)(zeng)長2.4%，兩年(nian)平(ping)均增(zeng)(zeng)速比上半年(nian)小幅回落0.2個百分點(dian)。

農產品出口增速加快

前三季度，我(wo)國農(nong)產品出(chu)口額為594.9億(yi)美(mei)元，同比(bi)增(zeng)長9.3%，比(bi)上半(ban)(ban)年(nian)微升(sheng)0.1個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)；兩年(nian)平均增(zeng)長3.1%，兩年(nian)平均增(zeng)速(su)比(bi)上半(ban)(ban)年(nian)加快0.6個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)。從主要(yao)出(chu)口產品看，前三季度水產品出(chu)口151.9億(yi)美(mei)元，同比(bi)增(zeng)長14.8%；蔬菜及食用(yong)菌出(chu)口86.7億(yi)美(mei)元，同比(bi)增(zeng)長4.9%。

谷(gu)(gu)物進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)保(bao)持快速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。前三季度，我國谷(gu)(gu)物及其制品(pin)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)為167.5億(yi)(yi)美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)143.9%，增(zeng)速(su)雖比(bi)(bi)上半年下降23.4個(ge)百分(fen)點，但已連續6個(ge)季度保(bao)持同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)態勢(shi)。國內養(yang)殖業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)加快恢復(fu)帶動以(yi)玉米(mi)(mi)為主的(de)(de)(de)飼料用糧需(xu)求持續增(zeng)加，相應的(de)(de)(de)谷(gu)(gu)物進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)保(bao)持大(da)幅(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)態勢(shi)。其中(zhong)，玉米(mi)(mi)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)保(bao)持大(da)幅(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)量(liang)為2493萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)274.5%，進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)達69.4億(yi)(yi)美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)387.3%；大(da)麥進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)量(liang)為861萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)85.5%，進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)為24.1億(yi)(yi)美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)122.4%；小(xiao)麥進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)量(liang)為759萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)25.3%，進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)為23.4億(yi)(yi)美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)37.2%；高粱進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)量(liang)為735萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)110.2%，進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)為23.3億(yi)(yi)美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)182.5%；稻谷(gu)(gu)及大(da)米(mi)(mi)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)量(liang)為358萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)113.6%，進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)(kou)額(e)(e)為16.3億(yi)(yi)美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)85.7%。

農產品生產者價格由漲轉跌

三季(ji)(ji)度，全國農產(chan)品生(sheng)產(chan)者(zhe)價格(ge)(ge)同(tong)比下跌(die)8.0%，受(shou)生(sheng)豬價格(ge)(ge)持續下跌(die)影響，農產(chan)品生(sheng)產(chan)者(zhe)價格(ge)(ge)由一(yi)季(ji)(ji)度同(tong)比上(shang)漲7.8%、二季(ji)(ji)度同(tong)比上(shang)漲0.1%轉為同(tong)比下跌(die)。

從農產(chan)品(pin)(pin)構(gou)成(cheng)來看，三(san)季度(du)全國(guo)農產(chan)品(pin)(pin)生(sheng)產(chan)者價格“三(san)漲(zhang)一跌”。其(qi)中，農業產(chan)品(pin)(pin)價格上漲(zhang)6.5%，漲(zhang)幅(fu)比二季度(du)回落4.8個(ge)百分點(dian)；林業產(chan)品(pin)(pin)價格上漲(zhang)6.6%，漲(zhang)幅(fu)擴大(da)1.9個(ge)百分點(dian)；漁業產(chan)品(pin)(pin)價格上漲(zhang)10.2%，漲(zhang)幅(fu)回落7.1個(ge)百分點(dian)；飼養動物及其(qi)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)價格下跌29.0%，跌幅(fu)擴大(da)13.4個(ge)百分點(dian)。

分品種看，隨著(zhu)生豬(zhu)產能的(de)加(jia)快釋放，三季(ji)度生豬(zhu)價格下跌55.5%，跌幅(fu)比(bi)二季(ji)度擴大(da)22.1個百分點；水(shui)果和蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)價格整(zheng)體(ti)保持(chi)穩定，蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)價格下跌1.8%，水(shui)果價格上(shang)漲(zhang)4.8%。值得(de)注意的(de)是，受北方蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)產區多(duo)地(di)持(chi)續(xu)降(jiang)雨、低溫以(yi)及運輸(shu)成本上(shang)升等因素(su)影響，10月份(fen)以(yi)來全國蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)價格出現明顯上(shang)漲(zhang)。從后市看，今年全國蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)種植面積穩中有升，蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)供應整(zheng)體(ti)有保障(zhang)，隨著(zhu)各地(di)加(jia)大(da)保“菜(cai)(cai)籃(lan)子”供應和蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)調配(pei)力度，蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)供應偏緊的(de)狀(zhuang)況將(jiang)會得(de)到(dao)有效緩解(jie)。

從三(san)大主糧看，受生(sheng)(sheng)豬產能加(jia)快釋放、飼料用糧需求持續增加(jia)影(ying)響，玉米價(jia)格繼(ji)續保(bao)持快速上漲，但漲幅有所回落(luo)。三(san)季度(du)，玉米生(sheng)(sheng)產者價(jia)格上漲21.0%，漲幅比二季度(du)回落(luo)11.8個百分點；稻(dao)谷(gu)、小麥生(sheng)(sheng)產者價(jia)格分別上漲2.5%和8.5%，漲幅比二季度(du)分別擴大1.7個和4.7個百分點。

三季度，豬(zhu)料比為4.71：1，連續4個(ge)季度下降。生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)養殖虧損面有所擴大，農(nong)業(ye)農(nong)村部(bu)數據顯示，9月(yue)(yue)份(fen)全國(guo)養豬(zhu)場(chang)（戶）虧損面達76.7%。從生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)供(gong)給來(lai)看，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)在(zai)二季度恢復至(zhi)正常年份(fen)水平后(hou)慣(guan)性增長(chang)，三季度市場(chang)供(gong)應出現(xian)階段性過(guo)剩。從后(hou)市看，近期(qi)新生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)宰(zai)豬(zhu)數量仍呈增長(chang)態勢，短期(qi)內生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)供(gong)應仍將相對過(guo)剩。為防止(zhi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)大起大落，盡量熨平“豬(zhu)周期(qi)”，穩定生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)秩序，8月(yue)(yue)5日(ri)農(nong)業(ye)農(nong)村部(bu)等6部(bu)門印發(fa)《關于促進生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)產(chan)業(ye)持續健康發(fa)展(zhan)的意(yi)見》，9月(yue)(yue)23日(ri)農(nong)業(ye)農(nong)村部(bu)印發(fa)《生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)產(chan)能調控(kong)實(shi)施方案（暫行）》，加強生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)產(chan)能調減工作，保證長(chang)期(qi)的市場(chang)穩定供(gong)應。

城鄉居民收入差距繼續縮小

綜合來看，三季度農(nong)(nong)業經濟平穩運行，農(nong)(nong)業生產(chan)平穩增長(chang)，農(nong)(nong)產(chan)品(pin)供(gong)給量(liang)足價穩，為(wei)促進國民(min)經濟健康發(fa)展提(ti)供(gong)了有(you)(you)力(li)支撐。零售終(zhong)端食品(pin)需求、務農(nong)(nong)收入、固定資(zi)產(chan)投資(zi)等指標較上半年有(you)(you)所回落(luo)，但(dan)整體保(bao)持良(liang)好態勢(shi)。

前三季度，反映最終消費的糧(liang)油(you)、食(shi)品零(ling)售額為(wei)12086.7億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)10.3%，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)小(xiao)幅(fu)回(hui)落(luo)0.2個(ge)百分點，零(ling)售終端(duan)食(shi)品需求持(chi)續增(zeng)加。前三季度，農村(cun)居民(min)人(ren)均經(jing)(jing)營(ying)凈收(shou)入(ru)(ru)為(wei)4042元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)名義增(zeng)長(chang)6.7%，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)回(hui)落(luo)3.8個(ge)百分點，農村(cun)居民(min)經(jing)(jing)營(ying)凈收(shou)入(ru)(ru)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)速(su)的回(hui)落(luo)主要(yao)受局部汛情和上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期基數抬升(sheng)的影響。農村(cun)居民(min)經(jing)(jing)營(ying)凈收(shou)入(ru)(ru)占可(ke)支配收(shou)入(ru)(ru)的比(bi)(bi)重為(wei)29.4%，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)提(ti)高0.9個(ge)百分點。城(cheng)鄉居民(min)人(ren)均可(ke)支配收(shou)入(ru)(ru)之比(bi)(bi)為(wei)2.62，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期縮小(xiao)0.05，城(cheng)鄉居民(min)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)相對差(cha)距繼續縮小(xiao)。

前三季度，農林牧(mu)漁業(ye)(ye)固定資(zi)(zi)(zi)產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)同比增長(chang)12.9%，雖比上(shang)半年回落7.0個百分點，但仍(reng)比全社(she)會(hui)固定資(zi)(zi)(zi)產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)增速(su)高5.6個百分點。分行業(ye)(ye)看，畜牧(mu)業(ye)(ye)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)保持快速(su)增長(chang)態勢，前三季度畜牧(mu)業(ye)(ye)固定資(zi)(zi)(zi)產投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)額同比增長(chang)36.8%。

此外(wai)，前三季度，農林水財(cai)政(zheng)支(zhi)出15204億(yi)元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降4.5%，降幅比(bi)(bi)上半(ban)年收(shou)窄3.6個百分點(dian)。從兩(liang)年平均來看(kan)，前三季度財(cai)政(zheng)支(zhi)出同(tong)比(bi)(bi)上升2.5%，而上半(ban)年為(wei)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降0.4%。前三季度，第一產業勞動生產率為(wei)人(ren)均27221.5元（可比(bi)(bi)價），同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長12.5%，兩(liang)年平均增長9.9%。

從未來(lai)預期看，全年糧食豐(feng)收基礎堅實，隨著“菜籃子(zi)”保供穩(wen)價各項(xiang)政(zheng)策穩(wen)步落(luo)地，農(nong)產品(pin)價格有望保持(chi)穩(wen)定。隨著農(nong)業(ye)農(nong)村(cun)現代化加快(kuai)推(tui)進，農(nong)村(cun)內需潛力持(chi)續(xu)釋放，農(nong)業(ye)經(jing)濟將繼續(xu)保持(chi)穩(wen)中(zhong)(zhong)提質的向好態勢。結合模型(xing)預測，中(zhong)(zhong)經(jing)農(nong)業(ye)景氣指數或將延續(xu)小幅回落(luo)態勢，2021年四季(ji)度和2022年一季(ji)度，中(zhong)(zhong)經(jing)農(nong)業(ye)景氣指數分別為101.9和100.9。