（一）蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)處近10年(nian)同期次高(gao)(gao)，季節(jie)性加速(su)下行。4月(yue)份(fen)，農(nong)業農(nong)村部監測(ce)的28種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)全國(guo)平(ping)均批(pi)發價(jia)每公斤4.51元，環比跌6.6%，同比漲18.7%。環比價(jia)格(ge)(ge)15種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)下跌，13種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)上(shang)漲，跌幅超過(guo)20%的品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)有(you)(you)韭(jiu)菜(cai)(cai)（31.6%）、西葫蘆（31.3%）、黃瓜（29.6%）、油(you)菜(cai)(cai)（23.5%）和豆(dou)角（22.1%），漲幅超過(guo)20%的有(you)(you)大白菜(cai)(cai)（47.5%）、冬(dong)瓜（42.8%）和南瓜（21.8%）；同比價(jia)格(ge)(ge)27種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)上(shang)漲，只有(you)(you)南瓜下跌，漲幅超過(guo)40%的品種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)有(you)(you)蒜薹(tai)（72.1%）、蓮(lian)藕(ou)（55.5%）、西紅柿（50.5%）、芹菜(cai)(cai)（46.8%）和萵(wo)筍(sun)（41.8%）。菜(cai)(cai)價(jia)季節(jie)性下行加快，主要是氣溫回升，降水條件(jian)好，多地春季蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)進入上(shang)市高(gao)(gao)峰期，市場供應快速(su)增加。菜(cai)(cai)價(jia)同比保持較高(gao)(gao)水平(ping)，主要是今年(nian)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)播種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)面積和產量較上(shang)年(nian)有(you)(you)所縮減，據(ju)農(nong)業農(nong)村部監測(ce)，580個(ge)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)生產重(zhong)點(dian)縣(xian)3月(yue)底在(zai)田(tian)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)面積107萬畝，同比減2.2%，產量74萬噸(dun)，同比減1.5%。

（二）1-3月(yue)(yue)累計(ji)，蔬(shu)菜進出口(kou)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)。3月(yue)(yue)份蔬(shu)菜進口(kou)量(liang)(liang)6.43萬(wan)噸，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)1.3倍(bei)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)34.5%，進口(kou)額(e)0.94億(yi)(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)1.5倍(bei)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)23.7%；出口(kou)蔬(shu)菜92.74萬(wan)噸，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)54.6%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)6.0%，出口(kou)額(e)12.93億(yi)(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)74.7%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)2.1%；貿易(yi)順差11.99億(yi)(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)70.8%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)0.7%。1-3月(yue)(yue)累計(ji)進口(kou)量(liang)(liang)13.44萬(wan)噸，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)20.3%，進口(kou)額(e)1.94億(yi)(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)18.3%，出口(kou)量(liang)(liang)244.36萬(wan)噸，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)3.0%，出口(kou)額(e)32.61億(yi)(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)減(jian)6.0%；貿易(yi)順差30.67億(yi)(yi)美元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)減(jian)7.2%。

（三）預計(ji)后期蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)價格(ge)保持(chi)季節性下(xia)行。據中央氣象臺預報，5月份全國大部地區氣溫(wen)基本接近常(chang)年(nian)，北方(fang)有(you)大風(feng)降(jiang)(jiang)溫(wen)，西(xi)北地區至(zhi)江南華南有(you)較強降(jiang)(jiang)雨過程，對露地蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)生產較為不利，但由于氣溫(wen)整(zheng)體回升，北方(fang)蔬(shu)菜(cai)(cai)供應增加，預計(ji)后期菜(cai)(cai)價季節性加速下(xia)行，部分品種(zhong)由于前期價格(ge)高，擴種(zhong)意愿較強，價格(ge)可能(neng)出現大幅下(xia)跌，需密切關(guan)注。